PredictionMarketPulse
Tracking partnerships, licensing changes, and market activity across the US prediction market ecosystem
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Understanding the Prediction Market Ecosystem
Your guide to the US prediction markets ecosystem — understanding the regulatory framework, tracking the partnerships shaping the industry, and exploring how trading works.
The Regulators
CFTC
Commodity Futures Trading Commission
Role
The primary federal regulator of the U.S. derivatives markets, including futures, options on futures, and many swaps.
Responsibilities
Oversees trading to deter fraud, manipulation, abusive practices, and systemic risk, and to help ensure markets are fair, transparent, and financially sound.
NFA
National Futures Association
Role
A CFTC-designated self-regulatory organization (SRO) for derivatives intermediaries such as FCMs, introducing brokers, commodity pool operators, and swap firms.
Responsibilities
Sets and enforces rules for its members, conducts examinations and audits, monitors financial and compliance requirements, and runs registration and background-screening functions for many CFTC registrants.
Market Participants/Designations
FCM
Futures Commission Merchant
A firm that facilitates customer access to futures and options markets (and certain swaps or event contracts), accepts customer funds to margin those positions, and is subject to oversight by both the CFTC and NFA.
Examples
PrizePicks (Performance Predictions II), Robinhood Derivatives
DCM
Designated Contract Market
A CFTC-regulated exchange (board of trade) where standardized futures, options on futures, and certain swaps or event contracts are listed and traded.
Examples
CME, Kalshi, Polymarket US (QCX), Crypto.com (CDNA)
DCO
Derivatives Clearing Organization
A CFTC-registered clearinghouse that clears and settles trades—often those executed on DCMs—and manages the associated margin and counterparty risk.
Examples
CME Clearing, Kalshi Klear, Polymarket Clearing (QC Clearing)
IB
Introducing Broker
A CFTC-regulated intermediary, registered with the NFA, that solicits or accepts customer orders but does not hold customer funds; instead, it "introduces" those accounts to an FCM or DCM who carries the positions.
Examples
Fanatics (via Paragon Global Markets), DraftKings Predictions
See how DCMs, DCOs, FCMs, and platforms connect
Explore the interactive network map behind 70+ partnerships
Market Structure Flow
How trades move through the prediction markets ecosystem
Customer
Individual Trader
IB / Non-Clearing FCM / TSP
Access Point
FCM
Clearing & Custody
DCM
Exchange/Market
DCO
Settlement
Introducing Broker
Solicits customers but doesn't hold funds
Futures Commission Merchant
Accepts and holds customer funds for trading
Tech Service Provider
Provides technology platform and services
Note on Multi-Role Entities
Some organizations may serve multiple roles simultaneously. For example, CME functions as an FCM, DCM, and DCO. The flow shown represents the logical progression of a trade through the system, even when roles are consolidated within a single entity.
In certain prediction market structures, introducing intermediaries may operate without a separate FCM because customer clearing is handled directly by the exchange or its clearing organization.
Try trading with our simulator
Practice buying and selling event contracts in a risk-free environment.
Launch SimulatorPartnership Tracker
Summary of prediction market partnerships since 2025.
Last updated:
Entity Filings
CFTC and NFA prediction market designations, registrations, and applications.
This tracker aims for comprehensive coverage of CFTC-designated exchanges and registered clearinghouses. Some listed entities may operate in adjacent markets (e.g., crypto derivatives) and have not announced event contract offerings.
Last updated:
Ecosystem Network Map
Interactive visualization of prediction market partnerships and regulatory relationships.
About PredictionMarketPulse
This site is an independent project that explains the structure and partnerships behind prediction markets—how they're organized and who's involved.
As the space has evolved, we found the news hard to follow and the underlying relationships even harder to untangle. This site brings those pieces together in one place for anyone looking for clarity.
This site will be regularly updated as new deals are announced to keep the information current and comprehensive.
About the Creators
Josh Pearl
Josh has spent over a decade working in regulated gambling, spanning online horse racing, sports wagering, online casino, and paid fantasy sports. He previously led new-state launch efforts at Penn Interactive, working closely on legislative, regulatory, and operational considerations.
He now consults with regulated gambling companies across a wide range of initiatives. Josh has followed prediction markets closely since early 2025 out of personal interest and has no business affiliation with any entities participating in this space.
LinkedIn ProfileGrant Hartman
Grant works as Director of Client Engagement at Chariot Solutions, where he works closely with clients building software in complex, highly regulated markets, including gaming, sports betting, and prediction markets. Through this work, he's spent years close to projects shaped by regulation, incentives, and technology.
LinkedIn ProfileGet in Touch
We welcome feedback, suggestions for partnerships to add to our tracker, or just a friendly hello. We'd love to hear from you!